Building SSPs for Climate Policy Analysis : A Scenario Elicitation Methodology to Map the Space of Possible Future Challenges to Mitigation and Adaptation - École des Ponts ParisTech Access content directly
Preprints, Working Papers, ... Year : 2012

Building SSPs for Climate Policy Analysis : A Scenario Elicitation Methodology to Map the Space of Possible Future Challenges to Mitigation and Adaptation

Abstract

The scientific community is now developing a new set of scenarios, referred to as Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) to replace the SRES scenarios. To be used to investigate adaptation and mitigation, SSPs need to be contrasted along two axes: challenges to mitigation, and challenges to adaptation. This paper proposes a methodology to develop SSPs with a "backward" approach. The methodology is based on (i) an a priori identification of potential drivers of mitigation and adaptation challenges; (ii) a modelling exercise to transform these drivers into a large set of scenarios; (iii) an a posteriori selection of a few SSPs among these scenarios, such that they cover the uncertainty space in terms of challenges to adaptation and mitigation. This methodology is applied to the selection of a few SSPs, but it could also be applied to any specific decisions faced by decision-makers. From a large database of runs built by many models, the methodology would allow selecting the most relevant scenarios for a specific decision, i.e. scenarios that best predict when the analyzed choice performs poorly or well.
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Dates and versions

hal-00793927 , version 1 (24-02-2013)

Identifiers

  • HAL Id : hal-00793927 , version 1

Cite

Julie Rozenberg, Céline Guivarch, R.J. Lempert, Stéphane Hallegatte. Building SSPs for Climate Policy Analysis : A Scenario Elicitation Methodology to Map the Space of Possible Future Challenges to Mitigation and Adaptation. 2012. ⟨hal-00793927⟩
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