<?xml version="1.0" encoding="utf-8"?>
<TEI xmlns="http://www.tei-c.org/ns/1.0" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xmlns:hal="http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/" xmlns:gml="http://www.opengis.net/gml/3.3/" xmlns:gmlce="http://www.opengis.net/gml/3.3/ce" version="1.1" xsi:schemaLocation="http://www.tei-c.org/ns/1.0 http://api.archives-ouvertes.fr/documents/aofr-sword.xsd">
  <teiHeader>
    <fileDesc>
      <titleStmt>
        <title>HAL TEI export of hal-02525587</title>
      </titleStmt>
      <publicationStmt>
        <distributor>CCSD</distributor>
        <availability status="restricted">
          <licence target="https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/">CC0 1.0 - Universal</licence>
        </availability>
        <date when="2026-05-23T23:43:55+02:00"/>
      </publicationStmt>
      <sourceDesc>
        <p part="N">HAL API Platform</p>
      </sourceDesc>
    </fileDesc>
  </teiHeader>
  <text>
    <body>
      <listBibl>
        <biblFull>
          <titleStmt>
            <title xml:lang="fr">Le couple anticipation/décision aux prises avec l'exceptionnel, l'imprévu et l'incertitude</title>
            <author role="aut">
              <persName>
                <forename type="first">Valérie</forename>
                <surname>November</surname>
              </persName>
              <email type="md5">d8ad3b45d888d47b2e152544fa6ecd7c</email>
              <email type="domain">sciencespo.fr</email>
              <idno type="idhal" notation="string">valerie-november</idno>
              <idno type="idhal" notation="numeric">4021</idno>
              <idno type="halauthorid" notation="string">16470-4021</idno>
              <idno type="ORCID">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3365-1470</idno>
              <idno type="IDREF">https://www.idref.fr/07155789X</idno>
              <orgName ref="#struct-301545"/>
              <affiliation ref="#struct-581046"/>
            </author>
            <author role="aut">
              <persName>
                <forename type="first">Alice</forename>
                <surname>Azémar</surname>
              </persName>
              <email type="md5">9be2b863549dcda192c06e439fd566e1</email>
              <email type="domain">enpc.fr</email>
              <idno type="idhal" notation="numeric">1067207</idno>
              <idno type="halauthorid" notation="string">1815217-1067207</idno>
              <affiliation ref="#struct-581046"/>
            </author>
            <author role="aut">
              <persName>
                <forename type="first">Sophie</forename>
                <surname>Lecacheux</surname>
              </persName>
              <email type="md5">2890ef1fdbb941d065dab623675bef26</email>
              <email type="domain">brgm.fr</email>
              <idno type="idhal" notation="numeric">883294</idno>
              <idno type="halauthorid" notation="string">511278-883294</idno>
              <idno type="ORCID">https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8229-4601</idno>
              <affiliation ref="#struct-18404"/>
            </author>
            <author role="aut">
              <persName>
                <forename type="first">Thierry</forename>
                <surname>Winter</surname>
              </persName>
              <email type="md5">f40357195c7ec246b19592e7101e1df4</email>
              <email type="domain">brgm.fr</email>
              <idno type="idhal" notation="string">thierry-winter</idno>
              <idno type="idhal" notation="numeric">183843</idno>
              <idno type="halauthorid" notation="string">1854-183843</idno>
              <idno type="ORCID">https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2827-0136</idno>
              <idno type="IDREF">https://www.idref.fr/192440500</idno>
              <idno type="VIAF">https://viaf.org/viaf/309740133</idno>
              <affiliation ref="#struct-18404"/>
            </author>
            <editor role="depositor">
              <persName>
                <forename>Valérie</forename>
                <surname>November</surname>
              </persName>
              <email type="md5">d8ad3b45d888d47b2e152544fa6ecd7c</email>
              <email type="domain">sciencespo.fr</email>
            </editor>
            <funder ref="#projanr-49107"/>
          </titleStmt>
          <editionStmt>
            <edition n="v1" type="current">
              <date type="whenSubmitted">2020-03-31 05:45:59</date>
              <date type="whenModified">2026-02-20 14:52:03</date>
              <date type="whenReleased">2020-04-03 10:55:43</date>
              <date type="whenProduced">2020</date>
              <date type="whenEndEmbargoed">2020-03-31</date>
              <ref type="file" target="https://enpc.hal.science/hal-02525587v1/document">
                <date notBefore="2020-03-31"/>
              </ref>
              <ref type="file" subtype="author" n="1" target="https://enpc.hal.science/hal-02525587v1/file/November_Azemar_Lecacheux_Winter_EchoGeo51.pdf" id="file-2525587-2397006">
                <date notBefore="2020-03-31"/>
              </ref>
              <ref type="externalLink" target="http://journals.openedition.org/echogeo/pdf/18949"/>
            </edition>
            <respStmt>
              <resp>contributor</resp>
              <name key="177952">
                <persName>
                  <forename>Valérie</forename>
                  <surname>November</surname>
                </persName>
                <email type="md5">d8ad3b45d888d47b2e152544fa6ecd7c</email>
                <email type="domain">sciencespo.fr</email>
              </name>
            </respStmt>
          </editionStmt>
          <publicationStmt>
            <distributor>CCSD</distributor>
            <idno type="halId">hal-02525587</idno>
            <idno type="halUri">https://enpc.hal.science/hal-02525587</idno>
            <idno type="halBibtex">november:hal-02525587</idno>
            <idno type="halRefHtml">&lt;i&gt;EchoGéo&lt;/i&gt;, 2020, 51, &lt;a target="_blank" href="https://dx.doi.org/10.4000/echogeo.18949"&gt;&amp;#x27E8;10.4000/echogeo.18949&amp;#x27E9;&lt;/a&gt;</idno>
            <idno type="halRef">EchoGéo, 2020, 51, &amp;#x27E8;10.4000/echogeo.18949&amp;#x27E9;</idno>
            <availability status="restricted">
              <licence target="https://about.hal.science/hal-authorisation-v1/">HAL Authorization<ref corresp="#file-2525587-2397006"/></licence>
            </availability>
          </publicationStmt>
          <seriesStmt>
            <idno type="stamp" n="SHS">Sciences de l'Homme et de la Société</idno>
            <idno type="stamp" n="BRGM">Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières</idno>
            <idno type="stamp" n="ENPC" corresp="PARISTECH">École nationale des ponts et chaussées </idno>
            <idno type="stamp" n="CNRS">CNRS - Centre national de la recherche scientifique</idno>
            <idno type="stamp" n="LATTS" corresp="ENPC">Laboratoire Techniques, Territoires et Sociétés</idno>
            <idno type="stamp" n="AO-GEOGRAPHIE">Archives ouvertes de la Géographie</idno>
            <idno type="stamp" n="AO-SOCIOLOGIE">Archives ouvertes de la Sociologie</idno>
            <idno type="stamp" n="SOCIOLOGIE">SOCIOLOGIE</idno>
            <idno type="stamp" n="PARISTECH">ParisTech</idno>
            <idno type="stamp" n="GIP-BE">GIP Bretagne Environnement</idno>
            <idno type="stamp" n="GENIECIVIL">Génie Civil</idno>
            <idno type="stamp" n="ANR">ANR</idno>
            <idno type="stamp" n="UNIV-EIFFEL">Université Gustave Eiffel</idno>
            <idno type="stamp" n="U-EIFFEL">Université Gustave Eiffel</idno>
            <idno type="stamp" n="IP-PARIS-SCIENCES-SOCIALES-ET-MANAGEMENT">IP Paris Département des Sciences sociales et Management</idno>
            <idno type="stamp" n="BRGM-TEST">BRGM-TEST</idno>
          </seriesStmt>
          <notesStmt>
            <note type="audience" n="2">International</note>
            <note type="popular" n="0">No</note>
            <note type="peer" n="1">Yes</note>
          </notesStmt>
          <sourceDesc>
            <biblStruct>
              <analytic>
                <title xml:lang="fr">Le couple anticipation/décision aux prises avec l'exceptionnel, l'imprévu et l'incertitude</title>
                <author role="aut">
                  <persName>
                    <forename type="first">Valérie</forename>
                    <surname>November</surname>
                  </persName>
                  <email type="md5">d8ad3b45d888d47b2e152544fa6ecd7c</email>
                  <email type="domain">sciencespo.fr</email>
                  <idno type="idhal" notation="string">valerie-november</idno>
                  <idno type="idhal" notation="numeric">4021</idno>
                  <idno type="halauthorid" notation="string">16470-4021</idno>
                  <idno type="ORCID">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3365-1470</idno>
                  <idno type="IDREF">https://www.idref.fr/07155789X</idno>
                  <orgName ref="#struct-301545"/>
                  <affiliation ref="#struct-581046"/>
                </author>
                <author role="aut">
                  <persName>
                    <forename type="first">Alice</forename>
                    <surname>Azémar</surname>
                  </persName>
                  <email type="md5">9be2b863549dcda192c06e439fd566e1</email>
                  <email type="domain">enpc.fr</email>
                  <idno type="idhal" notation="numeric">1067207</idno>
                  <idno type="halauthorid" notation="string">1815217-1067207</idno>
                  <affiliation ref="#struct-581046"/>
                </author>
                <author role="aut">
                  <persName>
                    <forename type="first">Sophie</forename>
                    <surname>Lecacheux</surname>
                  </persName>
                  <email type="md5">2890ef1fdbb941d065dab623675bef26</email>
                  <email type="domain">brgm.fr</email>
                  <idno type="idhal" notation="numeric">883294</idno>
                  <idno type="halauthorid" notation="string">511278-883294</idno>
                  <idno type="ORCID">https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8229-4601</idno>
                  <affiliation ref="#struct-18404"/>
                </author>
                <author role="aut">
                  <persName>
                    <forename type="first">Thierry</forename>
                    <surname>Winter</surname>
                  </persName>
                  <email type="md5">f40357195c7ec246b19592e7101e1df4</email>
                  <email type="domain">brgm.fr</email>
                  <idno type="idhal" notation="string">thierry-winter</idno>
                  <idno type="idhal" notation="numeric">183843</idno>
                  <idno type="halauthorid" notation="string">1854-183843</idno>
                  <idno type="ORCID">https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2827-0136</idno>
                  <idno type="IDREF">https://www.idref.fr/192440500</idno>
                  <idno type="VIAF">https://viaf.org/viaf/309740133</idno>
                  <affiliation ref="#struct-18404"/>
                </author>
              </analytic>
              <monogr>
                <idno type="halJournalId" status="VALID">64419</idno>
                <idno type="eissn">1963-1197</idno>
                <title level="j">EchoGéo</title>
                <imprint>
                  <publisher>Pôle de Recherche pour l'Organisation et la Diffusion de l'Information Géographique (PRODIG)</publisher>
                  <biblScope unit="issue">51</biblScope>
                  <date type="datePub">2020</date>
                </imprint>
              </monogr>
              <idno type="doi">10.4000/echogeo.18949</idno>
              <ref type="publisher">http://journals.openedition.org/echogeo/18949</ref>
            </biblStruct>
          </sourceDesc>
          <profileDesc>
            <langUsage>
              <language ident="fr">French</language>
            </langUsage>
            <textClass>
              <keywords scheme="author">
                <term xml:lang="en">Irma-Jose-Maria</term>
                <term xml:lang="en">uncertainty</term>
                <term xml:lang="en">resilience</term>
                <term xml:lang="en">crisis management</term>
                <term xml:lang="en">Hurricane</term>
                <term xml:lang="fr">résilience</term>
                <term xml:lang="fr">incertitude</term>
                <term xml:lang="fr">gestion de crise</term>
                <term xml:lang="fr">Cyclone</term>
              </keywords>
              <classCode scheme="halDomain" n="shs.geo">Humanities and Social Sciences/Geography</classCode>
              <classCode scheme="halDomain" n="shs.socio">Humanities and Social Sciences/Sociology</classCode>
              <classCode scheme="halDomain" n="spi.gciv.risq">Engineering Sciences [physics]/Civil Engineering/Risques</classCode>
              <classCode scheme="halTypology" n="ART">Journal articles</classCode>
              <classCode scheme="halOldTypology" n="ART">Journal articles</classCode>
              <classCode scheme="halTreeTypology" n="ART">Journal articles</classCode>
            </textClass>
            <abstract xml:lang="en">
              <p>Anticipation and decision-making in crisis situations are subject of numerous studies that highlight the polysemy of these concepts as well as the difficulties regularly encountered during their implementation (context of uncertainty, format and circulation of information, different perceptions of the situation between actors and geographical scales, etc.). Through two case studies located during the Irma-José-Maria crisis, one observed in the National French Crisis Center and the other experienced by a government operator, at a more regional level, this article illustrates these obstacles and highlights the fragmentation of the anticipation/decision couple in the practice of the different ORSEC levels. It appears that the lack of a shared vision within and between the crisis units on the nature, time horizon and methodological framework of the anticipation function were as many obstacles to its effective implementation during the cyclone sequence. This situation is due in particular to the co-existence of different ministerial cultures of anticipation. As time appears to be a structuring and critical element of an adaptive and shared anticipatory approach, the authors argue for an understanding of the anticipation/decision-making relationship in terms of a continuum, assuming the plurality of cultures and integrating all temporalities.</p>
            </abstract>
            <abstract xml:lang="fr">
              <p>L'anticipation et la prise de décision en situation de crise font l'objet de nombreuses études qui mettent en avant la polysémie de ces notions ainsi que les difficultés régulièrement rencontrés lors de leur mise en oeuvre (contexte d'incertitude, format et circulation de l'information, perceptions différentes de la situation entre les acteurs et les échelles géographiques, etc.). A travers deux études de cas situées pendant la crise Irma-José-Maria, l'une observée en CIC, au niveau interministériel, et l'autre vécue par un opérateur de l'Etat, au niveau territorial, cet article illustre ces obstacles et souligne la fragmentation du couple anticipation/décision dans la pratique des différents niveaux ORSEC. Il apparaît en effet que l'absence d'une vision partagée au sein et entre les cellules de crise sur la nature, l'horizon temporel et le cadre méthodologique de la fonction anticipation ont été autant d'entraves à sa mise en oeuvre effective pendant la séquence cyclonique. Cette situation trouve notamment son origine dans la coexistence de cultures ministérielles différentes de l'anticipation. Le temps apparaissant comme un élément structurant et critique d'une démarche anticipative adaptative et partagée, les auteurs plaident pour une compréhension du couple anticipation / prise de décision en termes de continuum, assumant la pluralité des cultures et intégrant l'ensemble des temporalités. Abstract Anticipation and decision-making in crisis situations are subject of numerous studies that highlight the polysemy of these concepts as well as the difficulties regularly encountered during their implementation (context of uncertainty, format and circulation of information, different perceptions of the situation between actors and geographical scales, etc.). Through two case studies located during the Irma-José-Maria crisis, one observed in the National French Crisis Center and the other experienced by a government operator, at a more regional level, this article illustrates these obstacles and highlights the fragmentation of the anticipation/decision couple in the practice of the different ORSEC levels. It appears that the lack of a shared vision within and between the crisis units on the nature, time horizon and methodological framework of the anticipation function were as many obstacles to its effective implementation during the cyclone sequence. This situation is due in particular to the coexistence of different ministerial cultures of anticipation. As time appears to be a structuring and critical element of an adaptive and shared anticipatory approach, the authors argue for an understanding of the anticipation/decision-making relationship in terms of a continuum, assuming the plurality of cultures and integrating all temporalities.</p>
            </abstract>
          </profileDesc>
        </biblFull>
      </listBibl>
    </body>
    <back>
      <listOrg type="structures">
        <org type="laboratory" xml:id="struct-581046" status="OLD">
          <idno type="IdRef">029886961</idno>
          <idno type="RNSR">200212790Y</idno>
          <orgName>Laboratoire Techniques, Territoires et Sociétés</orgName>
          <orgName type="acronym">LATTS</orgName>
          <date type="start">2020-01-01</date>
          <date type="end">2024-12-31</date>
          <desc>
            <address>
              <addrLine>Ecole des Ponts ParisTech, Cité Descartes, 6 et 8 avenue Blaise Pascal, F. 77455 Marne-la-Vallée cedex 2</addrLine>
              <country key="FR"/>
            </address>
            <ref type="url">https://latts.fr/</ref>
          </desc>
          <listRelation>
            <relation active="#struct-301545" type="direct"/>
            <relation name="UMR8134" active="#struct-441569" type="direct"/>
            <relation active="#struct-580722" type="direct"/>
          </listRelation>
        </org>
        <org type="institution" xml:id="struct-18404" status="VALID">
          <idno type="IdRef">026362775</idno>
          <idno type="ISNI">0000000121846484</idno>
          <idno type="RNSR">195922846R</idno>
          <idno type="ROR">https://ror.org/05hnb7x64</idno>
          <idno type="Wikidata">Q138691</idno>
          <orgName>Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières</orgName>
          <orgName type="acronym">BRGM</orgName>
          <desc>
            <address>
              <addrLine>Orléans (siège social) ET Directions régionales</addrLine>
              <country key="FR"/>
            </address>
            <ref type="url">http://www.brgm.fr/</ref>
          </desc>
        </org>
        <org type="institution" xml:id="struct-301545" status="OLD">
          <idno type="ROR">https://ror.org/02nwvxz07</idno>
          <orgName>École nationale des ponts et chaussées</orgName>
          <orgName type="acronym">ENPC</orgName>
          <date type="start">1747-02-14</date>
          <date type="end">2024-12-31</date>
          <desc>
            <address>
              <addrLine>École nationale des ponts et chaussées, 6-8 avenue Blaise-Pascal, Cité Descartes, Champs-sur-Marne, 77455 Marne-la-Vallée cedex 2</addrLine>
              <country key="FR"/>
            </address>
            <ref type="url">https://ecoledesponts.fr/</ref>
          </desc>
        </org>
        <org type="regroupinstitution" xml:id="struct-441569" status="VALID">
          <idno type="IdRef">02636817X</idno>
          <idno type="ISNI">0000000122597504</idno>
          <idno type="ROR">https://ror.org/02feahw73</idno>
          <orgName>Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique</orgName>
          <orgName type="acronym">CNRS</orgName>
          <date type="start">1939-10-19</date>
          <desc>
            <address>
              <country key="FR"/>
            </address>
            <ref type="url">https://www.cnrs.fr/</ref>
          </desc>
        </org>
        <org type="institution" xml:id="struct-580722" status="VALID">
          <idno type="ROR">https://ror.org/03x42jk29</idno>
          <orgName>Université Gustave Eiffel</orgName>
          <date type="start">2020-01-01</date>
          <desc>
            <address>
              <addrLine>Cité Descartes, 5 Boulevard Descartes • Champs-sur-Marne, 77454 Marne-la-Vallée Cedex 2</addrLine>
              <country key="FR"/>
            </address>
            <ref type="url">https://www.univ-gustave-eiffel.fr/</ref>
          </desc>
        </org>
      </listOrg>
      <listOrg type="projects">
        <org type="anrProject" xml:id="projanr-49107" status="VALID">
          <idno type="anr">ANR-18-OURA-0001</idno>
          <idno type="program">OURAGANS 2017 - CATASTROPHE, RISQUE ET RÉSILIENCE</idno>
          <orgName>APRIL</orgName>
          <desc>Optimiser l'Anticipation et la Prise de décision en situation de crises extrêmes pour maintenir la RésiLience de la société</desc>
          <date type="start">2018</date>
        </org>
      </listOrg>
    </back>
  </text>
</TEI>