%0 Journal Article %T Evaluation of the Performance and the Predictive Capacity of Build-Up and Wash-Off Models on Different Temporal Scales %+ Laboratoire Eau Environnement et Systèmes Urbains (LEESU) %A Al Ali, Saja %A Bonhomme, Céline %A Chebbo, Ghassan %< avec comité de lecture %@ 1462-0758 %J Urban Water %I Elsevier %V 8 %N 8 %8 2016-07-23 %D 2016 %R 10.3390/w8080312 %K urban stormwater %K concentrations %K suspended solids %K modeling %K build-up %K wash-off %K data assimilation %K MCMC %K water quality %Z Environmental SciencesJournal articles %X Stormwater quality modeling has arisen as a promising tool to develop mitigation strategies. The aim of this paper is to assess the build-up and wash-off processes and investigate the capacity of several water quality models to accurately simulate and predict the temporal variability of suspended solids concentrations in runoff, based on a long-term data set. A Markov Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) technique is applied to calibrate the models and analyze the parameter’s uncertainty. The short-term predictive capacity of the models is assessed based on inter- and intra-event approaches. Results suggest that the performance of the wash-off model is related to the dynamic of pollutant transport where the best fit is recorded for first flush events. Assessment of SWMM (Storm Water Management Model) exponential build-up model reveals that better performance is obtained on short periods and that build-up models relying only on the antecedent dry weather period as an explanatory variable, cannot predict satisfactorily the accumulated mass on the surface. The predictive inter-event capacity of SWMM exponential model proves its inability to predict the pollutograph while the intra-event approach based on data assimilation proves its efficiency for first flush events only. This method is very interesting for management practices because of its simplicity and easy implementation. %G English %L hal-01383105 %U https://enpc.hal.science/hal-01383105 %~ SDE %~ AGROPARISTECH %~ ENPC %~ PARISTECH %~ ENPC-LEESU %~ GIP-BE %~ UPEC %~ AGREENIUM