Global sensitivity analysis of an energy-economy model of the residential building sector - École des Ponts ParisTech
Article Dans Une Revue Environmental Modelling and Software Année : 2015

Global sensitivity analysis of an energy-economy model of the residential building sector

Résumé

In this paper, we discuss the results of a sensitivity analysis of Res-IRF, an energy-economy model of the demand for space heating in French dwellings. Res-IRF has been developed for the purpose of increasing behavioral detail in the modeling of energy demand. The different drivers of energy demand, namely the extensive margin of energy efficiency investment, the intensive one and building occupants, behavior are disaggregated and determined endogenously. The model also represents the established barriers to the diffusion of energy efficiency: heterogeneity of consumer preferences, landlord-tenant split incentives and slow diffusion of information. The relevance of these modeling assumptions is assessed through the Morris method of sensitivity analysis, which allows for the exploration of uncertainty over the whole input space. We find that the Res-IRF model is most sensitive to energy prices. It is also found to be quite sensitive to the factors parameterizing the different drivers of energy demand. In contrast, inputs mimicking barriers to energy efficiency have been found to have little influence. These conclusions build confidence in the accuracy of the model and highlight occupants' behavior as a priority area for future empirical research. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd.
Fichier principal
Vignette du fichier
Branger_Giraudet_Guivarch_Quirion_FAERE_PP2015.01.pdf (1.41 Mo) Télécharger le fichier
Origine Fichiers éditeurs autorisés sur une archive ouverte

Dates et versions

hal-01194436 , version 1 (14-12-2023)

Identifiants

Citer

F. Branger, L. G. Giraudet, Céline Guivarch, P. Quirion. Global sensitivity analysis of an energy-economy model of the residential building sector. Environmental Modelling and Software, 2015, 70, pp.45-54. ⟨10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.03.021⟩. ⟨hal-01194436⟩
153 Consultations
47 Téléchargements

Altmetric

Partager

More