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Journal Articles Technological Forecasting and Social Change Year : 2015

Diagnostic indicators for integrated assessment models of climate policy

Abstract

Integrated assessments of how climate policy interacts with energy-economy systems can be performed by a variety of models with different functional structures. In order to provide insights into why results differ between models, this article proposes a diagnostic scheme that can be applied to a wide range of models. Diagnostics can uncover patterns of model behavior and indicate how results differ between model types. Such insights are informative since model behavior can have a significant impact on projections of climate change mitigation costs and other policy-relevant information. The authors propose diagnostic indicators to characterize model responses to carbon price signals and test these in a diagnostic study of 11 global models. Indicators describe the magnitude of emission abatement and the associated costs relative to a harmonized baseline, the relative changes in carbon intensity and energy intensity, and the extent of transformation in the energy system. This study shows a correlation among indicators suggesting that models can be classified into groups based on common patterns of behavior in response to carbon pricing. Such a classification can help to explain variations among policy-relevant model results.

Dates and versions

hal-01086069 , version 1 (21-11-2014)

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Elmar Kriegler, Nils Petermann, Volker Krey, Valeria Jana Schwanitz, Gunnar Luderer, et al.. Diagnostic indicators for integrated assessment models of climate policy. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2015, 90 (A), pp.45-61. ⟨10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.020⟩. ⟨hal-01086069⟩
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